The next phase of competition has already begun

For whilst Western European hauliers have lost ground internationally over the past fifteen years, the next fundamental shift is now underway: the electrification of freight transport. And here too, Belgium is at risk of falling behind. According to figures from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory, 342 battery-electric lorries were registered in Belgium in 2025, accounting for 3.79 per cent of new registrations. In the first half of 2026, the figure was barely 143, or 2.25 per cent.

Meanwhile, Western Europe is moving in the opposite direction. In the first half of 2026, registrations of plug-in electric lorries in the EU rose by 47.7 per cent. Germany saw growth of 88.5 per cent, and the Netherlands 44.5 per cent. Germany, the Netherlands and France together account for almost three-quarters of the European market. Transport companies that are electrifying their fleets today are learning how to organise charging hubs, procure energy, optimise routes and fit in charging sessions within drivers’ mandatory rest periods. Their suppliers, network operators and financiers are learning alongside them.

Technology is no longer the excuse

Until recently, it was easy to point the finger at the lorries themselves. Too expensive, insufficient range, too few charging options. That argument is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. At this year’s IAA Transportation in Hanover, electric lorries with a range of 600 and even around 750 kilometres were on display. Moreover, megawatt charging enables charging capacities that are increasingly better aligned with drivers’ mandatory rest periods.

Not every transport job can be carried out using electric vehicles at present. But for a growing proportion of regional and international transport, the vehicles are already available. The infrastructure is also starting to catch up. Relative to its size, Belgium already has an extensive public charging network. There are challenges for heavy goods transport, but we are also on the right track.  The question is therefore shifting from ‘is it technically feasible?’ to ‘can a Belgian transport operator turn this into a competitive business case?’ And that’s where the rub lies.

Belgium can refine oil, but not produce it

The current oil crisis also highlights why this issue is becoming so urgent. Belgium has a significant refining industry centred on Antwerp. However, Belgium does not produce crude oil itself. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 30 to 35 per cent of our imported crude oil came from Russia. Today, that share is zero. We have successfully replaced that dependence with a broader group of suppliers, including Kazakhstan, Guyana, Norway and the United States.

That is good for our security of supply, but diversification is not the same as independence. They do not protect our transport companies from the impact of international oil crises on prices. 

We are spending 745 million euros to keep diesel competitive

That is why commercial diesel also warrants a fundamental debate. In 2025, approximately 745 million euros in excise duties were refunded via the system: 259 million to Belgian hauliers and 486 million to foreign hauliers who refuelled in Belgium. That latter figure requires some qualification. By refuelling here, those foreign lorries also generate significant excise revenue. The 745 million euros cannot therefore simply be regarded as an immediate budgetary gain should the system be abolished.

Belgium is prepared to invest hundreds of millions of euros to keep the energy costs of diesel transport competitive. That system exists for a good reason: competitiveness. But if commercial diesel serves precisely that purpose, we must also dare to ask ourselves which form of competitiveness we wish to protect – that of yesterday or that of tomorrow?

Professional diesel, but no professional electricity

A haulier with a diesel lorry therefore receives a significant portion of its excise duty back. A company that invests in an electric lorry not only finances the lorry itself, but also its charging infrastructure, possibly a higher-capacity grid connection, and subsequently its electricity. No comparable mechanism exists in this area. In other words, we have ‘professional’ diesel, but no ‘professional’ electricity for freight transport. It does mean, however, that we must view the electricity costs for transport with the same economic seriousness as the price of diesel.

Electricity, too, will become a competitive factor in the short term. Today, hauliers plan where they can refuel cheaply. Tomorrow, they will be just as careful to plan where they can charge their vehicles cheaply. France, for example, may offer attractive charging conditions. Anyone wishing to base their logistics operations, investments and charging activities in Belgium should therefore look beyond the competitiveness of diesel alone.

Use professional diesel as a lever for change

Abolishing professional diesel overnight would therefore not be a sensible policy. Without an alternative, we risk making Belgian transport more expensive whilst foreign competitors continue to operate as normal. But keeping the system unchanged is not a strategy either. 

This reform could just serve to develop a much broader competitiveness strategy. Some of the resources and fiscal leeway currently used to make fossil fuels cheaper could gradually be redirected towards creating the conditions that make zero-emission transport competitive: depot charging, grid connections, public truck charging and competitive electricity costs. RED III also offers additional leverage for this. A well-designed system of e-credits can create economic value for renewable electricity used directly in transport.

Today, we use taxation to make diesel cheaper. In the future, we can use some of that economic value to reduce our dependence on diesel.

We must not lose the same competitive battle again

The figures should give us pause for thought. Belgium remains a logistics hub. The flows of goods are there. Our ports are growing, e-commerce is growing and our central location has not changed. However, over the past fifteen years, Western European hauliers have lost a significant share of the international road haulage market to competitors from other parts of Europe.

We cannot reverse that by making diesel a few cents cheaper. We can, however, learn lessons from it for the next transition. Electric lorries are already here, their range is growing rapidly and the charging infrastructure is being expanded. Moreover, our neighbouring countries are now gaining experience at a faster rate.

We cannot predict where the next geopolitical crisis will erupt or which producer will restrict its exports tomorrow. What we can determine, however, is the conditions under which Belgian transport companies can make the next technological transition. The Belgian transport sector has been losing ground for far too long. Let us not try to win the next competitive battle with cheaper diesel.

Because tomorrow’s competitiveness will not be determined by who can fill up with the cheapest diesel, but by who needs the least of it.